The Perils of NBC

Hello blog, it's been a long time! After a longer than imagined hiatus, I feel like blogging again. This will be the first post of hopefully many to come. And it's a doozy.




 For the last half decade now former heavyweight TV titan NBC has been mired in last place in the network ratings. Things are getting so bad that Univision is even besting it on some nights. So many reasons have been attributed to this from bad management to bad luck. But every year there are umpteen articles describing how NBC can pull themselves out of this tailspin and return to it's former glory. But I think they're missing some of the points. It's not easy to pull a network out of a reckoning like this. Better/More innovative shows isn't always the answer. And the reason why is because people misunderstand some of the biggest perils NBC faces.


1. A Shrinking Audience. It's sounds obvious doesn't it? What's the point of this article if not to reiterate that NBC is losing viewers? Well I'm afraid it's a little worse than that. See existing shows are really the best places for TV networks to advertise their other shows. They don't have to pay money to advertise because it's on their own network and with some luck you can introduce a show and have your brand and audience dive right in. With fewer people watching NBC, it's getting a lot harder to do that. Let's draw an analogy. Say you send a letter to 100 people telling them about a big party you're hosting. Well it shouldn't be too hard to get a good portion to come right? Some might have prior commitments but let's say you can get 80 people that way. Now what happens if you only have 80 people you can send this invite to? Well then we're down to 60-65 or so. And so on and so forth. NBC doesn't have that 100 people. NBC has like 50 right now. So how are they going to get viewers to watch their show? Well it means they're going to have to advertise out. If you only know 50 people, you can only send 50 invites. But what if you convince your friend to lend you his contact list? Well now you know 100 people. But guess what? Your friend's not so nice. He wants you to buy him a drink as a thanks. It's a trade-off. I would argue NBC needs to rely more on outside advertising, billboards, or bus ads. But let's be realistic, few people see a poster of a TV show and feel the need to watch it. It's TV, you get drawn in by viewing it in action. Perhaps internet ads are the solution? I'm not going to lie. I don't have a concrete answer for this issue. But we need to realize that shows alone won't solve the issue. You can have the best shows in the world (And NBC does have some of the best on the schedule right now) but it won't mean a lick if no one's watching. Which brings up a final related point. With less people watching, there's a lot less money going around. Which means when money is forced to be spent on outside advertising, the pinch is felt a lot more

2. A Branding Issue. It's tough for networks to find their signature brand. Right now CBS is going through a period of being the old person's network. Their shows, mainly their dramas, lack edge, are mostly procedurals, and do well in the ratings, but not in the all important 18 to 49. FOX used to be the edgy network. I don't know if they still are as much anymore. But in the early days they cut their teeth on having the kinds of shows that none of the other networks would try. I'm worried that NBC has rebranded itself as a more cerebral network. NBC has been getting great reviews for some of their shows. Community, 30 Rock and Parks & Recreation are some of the best comedies on television. Awake might be one of the most interesting experiments on the procedural format ever. But there's a gloomy flip side to this, in that the shows are exceptionally low-rated. One of the better theories I've heard for next season is for NBC to scatter their current Thursday comedies and introduce a brand new line-up, save for maybe The Office. I'd encourage this approach. I hate to state it, but there's a really old TV maxim that works gangbusters - Go for the common denominator. Go low brow, don't try to have the smartest shows in the room, go for the dumbest. It's not pretty. 2 and a Half Men is not pretty, but guess what? It brings in the ratings and the cash for CBS. See because if you're smart you can watch a dumb show and maybe eke a few laughs out. But if you're not, then you're not watching a smart show no matter what. Granted we live in a different age now. If you don't think anything on TV is up to your high standards you don't have to watch. But the underlying concept is still there isn't it? Sadly NBC needs to get away from this smarter viewing model. Yes, they'll lose points with the critics, but critics don't keep the lights on.

3. TV's down everywhere. There's a dirty little secret among all the networks. Every year the margins for a 'hit' TV show lower. I doubt we will ever see the kind of shares posted in the 50s, where a 33% of all TV sets were tuned to a specific show. But with the rise and dominance of the internet, TV is finding it harder to make a place for itself. Every year fewer people tune in to watch shows. A hit show this year with say 5 million viewers would be considered dead in the water ten years ago. What does this mean? Well it goes back to the earlier point about less money in NBC's coffers. It's easy to sell advertisers with the lure that 1 in 3 people who owns a television will see your ad. It's a lot harder to sell them the idea that only 2 million will watch. Advertising is all about finding outlets that match your brand. But at a certain point if there aren't enough people in that outlet, it becomes virtually worthless and not worth the price. With viewership dropping it will be inevitable that we will reach that tipping point.

I've tried to stay away from discussion on what NBC needs to do to win. There's talk of rebuilding, frankly there's a lot of talk. I'm intrigued by their attempts with the fall. Pulling in stars to make their own shows and bring their audience with them - Dane Cook and Sarah Silverman are the first that come to mind. But honestly, I feel that the quality of the tv show is not the most important arbiter in how NBC can revive their fortunes. The truth is the problems run a lot deeper, and they're not NBC specific either. And that should be a ray of hope for NBC, other networks can face this too. It might just be a matter of time. I hope NBC takes advice from FOX's approach in the 90s. It will take time, years probably to rebuild. But it's possible.